The Election Commission of India has imposed restrictions stating that exit polls should only be released after the completion of elections in all five states. Accordingly, exit polls are scheduled to be released from 6:30 PM today. A question arises as to which of these, pre-election opinion polls or post-election exit polls, have been accurate in past elections. In reality, there is historical evidence that both types of polls have been both accurate and inaccurate in past elections.
Let's examine this chronologically, starting from the 2011 elections. In the 2011 assembly elections, pre-election opinion polls largely predicted that AIADMK would secure 120 to 130 seats, and DMK would get 110 to 120 seats. Post-election exit polls largely predicted that the AIADMK alliance would get 155 to 170 seats, and the DMK alliance would get 65 to 100 seats. However, the election results were completely different. In this election, the AIADMK alliance won 203 seats, and AIADMK alone won 150 seats. The DMK alliance won 31 seats, and DMK alone won 23 seats.
In the 2016 assembly elections, most opinion polls predicted a change in government and that DMK would come to power. Post-election exit polls predicted the DMK alliance would get 120 to 140 seats, and the AIADMK alliance 85 to 120 seats. However, in this election, AIADMK alone won 134 seats. The DMK alliance won 98 seats, and DMK alone won 89 seats. Jayalalithaa for the first time two.
In the 2021 assembly elections, pre-election opinion polls were somewhat accurate. They predicted the DMK alliance would get 150 to 160 seats, and AIADMK 55 to 65 seats. Post-election exit polls predicted the DMK alliance would get 160 to 185 seats, and AIADMK 35 to 70 seats. In this election, the DMK alliance won 159 seats, and DMK alone won 133 seats. The AIADMK alliance won 75 seats, and AIADMK alone won 66 seats.
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